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While world leaders gather in Brazil for Cop30, it is crucial to assess how we are faring together in lowering global greenhouse gas emissions.

Despite 30 years of UN climate summits, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of human-caused global warming. While researchers work on the upcoming IPCC report, they do so knowing that their work remains overshadowed by political influences. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the planet is still far from the path to avert dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Recent data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a record high of 423.9 parts per million in the year 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, 90% of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 originated from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% resulted from alterations in land use such as deforestation and wildfires.

While the increase in fossil CO₂ emissions in recent times was driven by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—accounting for over half of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also reached a record high, constituting 41%. In spite of Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to transition away from carbon fuels, collective plans still aim to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in 2030 than is consistent with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of gas rationalized as a lower emission bridge fuel.

The Illusion of Eco-Friendly Measures

Rather than concentrating on financial motivators to speed up the phase-out of fossil fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feel-good nature positive solutions that aim to cancel out CO2 output by planting trees rather than cutting industrial emissions. Although conserving, enlarging, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like woodlands and marshes is beneficial in itself, studies has demonstrated that there is insufficient territory to reach the global goal of carbon neutrality using nature-based solutions alone.

Approximately 1 billion hectares—an area bigger than the United States of America—is needed to fulfill net zero pledges. Over 40% of this land would need to be transformed from existing uses like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by the year 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Although this ideal restoration could be achieved, woodlands require years to grow and are susceptible to fires, so they should not be viewed as a quick or permanent carbon storage solution, particularly in a fast-changing environment. While extreme heat and dryness affect larger regions, these well-intentioned efforts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Planetary Absorbers

Research data tells us that about half of the total CO₂ emitted annually stays in the air, while the remainder is taken up by seas and land ecosystems. With global heating, these natural carbon sinks are becoming less effective at soaking up CO₂, meaning that additional CO2 accumulates in the air, further exacerbating climate change. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors simply relieves the oil and gas sector from the pressure to cut pollution in the near future.

The Climate Liability and Future Generations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which at present depends largely on land-based measures to absorb surplus CO2 from the atmosphere. Polluters can easily purchase offsets to compensate for their discharges and proceed with normal operations. Meanwhile, the energy imbalance resulting from the combustion of hydrocarbons keeps on further destabilise the global climate system. Essentially, we are adding more carbon debt to our planetary credit card, passing on future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the magnitude and duration of overshoot the global warming targets, the world eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of net zero and start to remove cumulative historical emissions to reach net negative emissions.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Net Zero

According to the latest numbers from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is presently capturing the equal of about 5% of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. Optimistic industry estimates suggest around zero point one percent of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is an insidious loophole that takes focus away from the scientific imperative to eliminate the main source of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

While this scientific reality should dominate discussions at Cop30, past events indicates that gradual, cautious steps and political kowtowing will win out. Ambiguous promises of long-term goals will continue to postpone the pressing requirement for concrete immediate action. Until policymakers have the courage to implement carbon pricing to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are releasing increasing amounts of CO2 to the air, compounding the environmental disaster now unfolding across the globe.

The dilemma we confront is simple: genuinely respond to the evidence-based situation of our crisis or suffer the results of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.