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During the race for the White House in 2016, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the only EU chief to support Donald Trump. This support was expected, given the Hungarian leader's embrace of controversial theories including the "great replacement" theory and his crackdowns on press independence. Observers have noted that Mr Orbán essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Electoral Support Before Hungarian Elections

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections merely six months away, the American leader returned some political favors. While Orbán pursues a fifth term in office governing a country he describes as an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party currently trails in the polls. A meeting to Washington yielded not just Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Despite earlier lecturing EU countries on the necessity to stop all energy imports from Russia, and warning of penalties against countries persisting to buy Russian oil, Donald Trump approved to allow a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also agreed to offer a economic protection to Budapest should it encounters any future difficulties, particularly since the European Union is still blocking substantial EU funds to Hungary due to violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this agreement seem vague. But Mr Trump illustrated his readiness to support ideological allies as the US granted a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Even though Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless turned out to be a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and Global Ramifications

Among European leaders, the US president's move likely highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, ahead of which the opposition candidate, Magyar, enjoys a clear edge in opinion data. European leaders know not to look for steady principles from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the US president’s moves to diminish the EU. Yet the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American energy resources – flagrantly undermines European goals to end Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled substantial funds to the Moscow's war operations.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has often employed the veto power to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of vowing a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and directed his efforts on home affairs, while stressing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a positive member state. Following repeated disruptions, Brussels can only remain patient. The Hungarian leader's apathy to core EU ideals, including the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His persistent opposition toward Ukraine threatens to weaken its future security.